带均值漂移的HEGY检验及其实证研究

研究了含多个均值漂移的HEGY检验.通过模拟实验,发现如果没有正确选择HEGY检验所含有的均值漂移个数,那么检验结果将会产生偏差.用不含均值漂移、含一个均值漂移和含两个均值漂移的HEGY模型研究了广东月度工业总产值周期性变化问题,结果表明,1991年至2003年间广东工业生产存在两个季节性均值漂移,仅含有一个非季节单位根.因此,选择含两个均值漂移的HEGY模型更适合本问题的研究.     

大鼠不完全性视网膜缺血的组织学变化

采用双侧颈总动脉阻断血流（２ＶＯ）的方法，造成大鼠不完全性视网膜缺血，用组织学方法观察了不同缺血时间（３０、９０ｍｉｎ，４、７、３０ｄ）的缺血后再灌注与不再灌流对视网膜变化的影响。结果显示：缺血３０和９０ｍｉｎ再灌流４ｄ后，内炕网膜（包括外网层、内核层、内网层、节细胞层、神经纤维怪和内界膜）明显增厚；其他不再灌流的缺血组，厚度趋向减少。节细胞计数随缺血时间延长逐渐减少；缺血４ｄ后明显减少。提示不完     

论明末清初的遗民词

遗民词并不是明清之际词人首创。然而 ,还从来没有哪个时代遗民词创作 ,能达到明末清初的高度 ;没有哪个时代遗民词的创作 ,能像明末清初一样有着明确、统一的主题 ;没有哪个时代的遗民词 ,在政治内涵的深度和广度上 ,能与明末清初媲美。可以毫不夸大地说 ,明末清初的遗民词成就是巨大的 ,在中国文学史上前无古人。这是我们民族一份极为珍贵的文学遗产     

试析环境演变对史前人类文明发展的影响--以长江三角洲南部平原良渚古文化衰变为例

良渚先民受自然环境的制约和经济生活模式的决定,连片成串地集中分布于长江三角洲南部平原,良渚早中期的温干气候和适宜环境使良渚文化空前繁荣,但在距今4000年左右突然消亡.作者通过研究,发现在距今4100年左右存在明显的降温事件,降温使农作物歉收,食物匮乏,在部落间引起连绵战争,使良渚文化走向衰弱.而距今3600年左右的海平面升高,在长江三角洲南部平原发生沟谷海侵,地下水位升高,太湖湖泊体系迅速扩张,引起大洪水,导致良渚文化消亡.     

Environmental changes reflected by n-alkanes of lake core in Nam Co on the Tibetan Plateau since 8.4 kaB.P.

The n-alkanes are extracted from NMLC-1 core that was drilled in the Nam Co, central Tibet. They are measured by using Gas Chromatography and Mass Spectrometry (GC/MS) for componential and quantitative analyses. According to the constructed depth-age model, the component and concentration of n-alkanes, together with total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN) and carbonate are used to elu- cidate palaeoenvironmental changes of Nam Co during the past 8.4 ka. The results indicate that Holo- cene environment performs three stages in the lake area. In the stage of 8.4―6.7 kaB.P., it was warmer while precipitation slightly increased. This stage was ended by an obvious cold/dry event. During 6.7― 5.8 kaB.P., temperature increased rapidly and reached its maximum values at about 6.0 kaB.P. The environments were warm/wet optimum for the blooming of terrestrial plants and submerged aquatic plants. After that, temperature decreased continuously and showed the lowest values at about 3.0 kaB.P. From 2.9 kaB.P. to the present, temperature rose again but alternated with cold and warm. The lake area tended to be dry after 1.4 kaB.P. During 600―400 aB.P., the environmental feature was the reflection of "Little Ice Age".     

略论先秦诸子“通变”的史学思想

“通变”思想滥觞于先秦史官，而作为一个比较完整的思想则初步形成于先秦诸子。先秦诸子“通变”的史学思想的内涵非常丰富，它包括通、变、通变、变通的四层含义，他们以“通”的眼光来看历史的变化，承认变化的趋势性，重视变革在历史进程中的作用。“通变”思想，反映出先秦诸子史学思想的重要特色。     

Seasonal prediction of European cereal prices: good forecasts using bad models?

Because of their natural adherence to the climate and pronounced seasonal cycles, prices of field crops constitute an interesting field for exploring seasonal time series models. We consider quarterly prices of two major cereals: barley and wheat. Using traditional in‐sample fit and moving‐window techniques, we investigate whether seasonality is deterministic or unit‐root stochastic and whether seasonal cycles have converged over time. We find that seasonal cycles in the data are mainly deterministic and that evidence on common cycles across countries differs for the two commodities. Out‐of‐sample prediction experiments, however, yield a ranking with respect to accuracy that does not match the statistical in‐sample evidence. Parametric bootstrap experiments establish that the observed mismatch is indeed an inherent and systematic feature. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

季节性河流水中基础工程的施工方法——以邵永高速湘江大桥水中桩基及承台的施工为例

介绍了邵永高速湘江大桥水中桩基及承台的施工中的总体思路，施工现场临时设施的布置及主要的施工方案。得出了施工季节性河流水中基础工程的一些经验．     

GM-L65电控柴油机突加减速特性试验研究

介绍了GM-L65电控柴油机的性能及控制参数,阐述了柴油机的特性与车辆性能及变速器换档之间的联系.通过柴油机突加减速特性试验,分析了柴油机突加减速特性及相应的加速踏板位置传感器信号变化特性,为动力传动系统的一体化控制以及换档规律设计提供了依据.     

洞庭湖区季节性河流浅滩航道整治方法初探--以安乡至茅草街航线七星堆滩整治为例

安乡至茅草街航线位于洞庭湖区长江分洪道凇滋河与虎渡河会流后的尾闾段,该航线为季节性河流．此类河流浅滩来水来沙条件及演变规律均与一般平原河流浅滩明显不同．涨水期河段输沙顺畅时,浅滩主流以冲刷为主;周边河流涨水及洞庭湖水位普遍抬高的滞水期,浅滩发生淤积．以七星堆滩为典型,归纳了针对该类浅滩在挖横布置及整治建筑物方面的设计原理,总结了该类滩险航道整治的设计思路、整治原则和方法．